Is Botswana Getting A Raw Deal From De Beers Diamonds - The World News -

As negotiations drag on, President Masisi has played a high-stakes card: threatening to walk away. He has publicly stated that if De Beers won't yield, Botswana will launch its own state-owned diamond trading house.

The partnership reached a critical juncture in 2024. The global diamond market, pummeled by competition from cheap lab-grown gems and weak demand from China and the US, sent Botswana’s economy into a tailspin. Economic growth plummeted, government revenues shrank, and public finances were strained to a breaking point.

Is Botswana Getting a Raw Deal From De Beers Diamonds? The decades-long marriage between the Republic of Botswana and De Beers Group is often hailed as the world’s most successful public-private partnership. Since the discovery of diamonds at Orapa in 1967, shortly after Botswana gained independence, this alliance has transformed a destitute pastoral nation into a thriving upper-middle-income economy. As negotiations drag on, President Masisi has played

The most compelling evidence that Botswana is getting a raw deal comes not from the legal text of the agreement, but from the brutal reality of the global diamond market. The industry is currently in one of its worst crises in memory, and the numbers from 2025 and 2026 are devastating.

The resulting 10-year sales agreement and 25-year mining licenses changed the math significantly: The global diamond market, pummeled by competition from

Yet, from the very beginning, the scales of benefit have been a source of latent tension. Profits were largely booked abroad, and for a long time, Botswana's leadership did not have full visibility of the true value of its own resources. Over the past 20 years, the government has learned to negotiate harder, clawing back a larger share of the proceeds. However, for many local economists and political leaders, the shift has been far too slow and insufficient.

Diamonds account for approximately 70% of Botswana’s exports, one-third of government revenue, and roughly a quarter of the country’s GDP. When the diamond market sneezes, Botswana catches a severe cold. Currently, the global diamond industry is in a "prolonged downturn." Weak demand from China, shifting tastes toward lab-grown stones, and a glut of inventory have hammered producers. The decades-long marriage between the Republic of Botswana

Perhaps the most significant "raw deal" isn't about the diamonds themselves, but the dependency they created. Botswana’s economy is a "monoculture." When the diamond market sneezes, Botswana catches a cold.